This technique helps you make sound decisions even when a number of outcomes are possible. It is particularly useful for situations that may change and develop over time.

Use this to...

  • Create an objective baseline for tracking events over time.
  • Instil rigour to your thinking.
  • Enhance the credibility of your decisions.
  • Create transparency of thinking.

Try this...

Partners in crime. This technique is useful when used in conjunction with others, such as ‘What If?’ Analysis or Alternative Futures Analysis

Buy one get one free. Creating two lists of indicators for each hypothesis or scenario can be handy for keeping an eye on whether a situation is developing.

A good, clean fight. This is a great technique to use when there are sharply divided views. Its focus on objective criteria helps to depersonalise the argument.

Watch out for...

Don’t rush it! Constructing your list of indicators might take a few days, so why not ask your team to start thinking well in advance of the meeting?


  1. Make a list of all the competing hypotheses that relate to your business theme. Check for group alignment and clarity.
  2. For each hypothesis draw up a list of potential activities and events that would need to happen. Leverage the experience and diversity of the group.
  3. Identify the most likely hypotheses. This may be reviewed later in the sprint.
  4. What data do you need to spot a situation developing? Add as much context as you can to the question to support the analytics effort.

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